Surprise!
“Here’s the thing about
Ann Arbor, ” writes a reader. “There is not a single surprise to be found
here. It is exactly the kind of city you would
predict it to be given its size, location, and
demographic. There are even good things about
it - exactly those good things you would predict it to
have - no more, no less. Some good bars, a few good
music stores, nice breakfast joints. It is the only
city I have ever lived in with nothing up its sleeve.”
We still find violent crime at all hours of the day surprising, but maybe we’re just sheltered.
http://www.ci.boston.ma.us/police/pdfs/july03.pdf
I’ll let the link speak for itself.
posted by Brian on December 11th, 2003 at 2:40 pmOr even better: contrast http://annarbor.areaconnect.com/crime1.htm with http://boston.areaconnect.com/crime1.htm
posted by Brian on December 11th, 2003 at 2:44 pmI was heartened to see that there were only 5 murders, 22 rapes, and 183 aggravated assaults in A2 in 2002.
I would argue that a better comparison, if you’re talking about college and grad students would be http://cambridgema.areaconnect.com/crime1.htm .
posted by Anna on December 11th, 2003 at 2:55 pmThat’s right! Another city (this one more of a college town, to boot) with a worse crime rate than Ann Arbor. Thanks for the excellent data point.
posted by Brian on December 11th, 2003 at 3:00 pmI guess your perspective depends on whether you care about being raped (less than 50% fewer per 100,000 in Cambridge — in 2002, a good year for Ann Arbor).
posted by Anna on December 11th, 2003 at 3:13 pmCome, come. Given that -both- Cambridge and Ann Arbor were below the national average for rapes in 2002, I must conclude that you either (1) can’t / didn’t follow the math [since, as both cities were well below the average, either one should be “safe” relative to other cities in the country!] or (2) are just trying to make me look insensitive.
I think I’ve made my point clear to those who care to look at the data rather than fit the data to their expectations or fears or whatever. I’ll sign off here.
posted by Brian on December 11th, 2003 at 3:25 pmI wasn’t trying to make you look insensitive. Simply stating a fact.
I don’t buy, “below average means that they are the same,” either you believe the numbers enough to use them to make a point, or you don’t; you can’t have it both ways, Brian. Obviously, with your significant intellect and statistical acumen you are aware that a single data-point from a single year is more or less useless for determining whether Ann Arbor is significantly lower than the national average in crime; that or you cut a lot of stat 402.
Cambridge’s number is quite a bit lower than the national average for 2002, (by 23 per 100,000 versus Ann Arbor’s 11 per 100,000) and likely statistically significantly lower than Ann Arbor for at least that year. Personally, I’d be interested in seeing the means and standard errors over 10 or so years, to see if there’s a significant difference between the two cities; yes, even we girls can do math.
Given that “Ann Arbor” encompasses places that are very, very suburban (take a drive outside of the immediate downtown area), and quite affluent by most standards, I find the summary stats actually quite shocking and am sure that they disproportionately impact people who live right around the university.
Thanks for the interesting data.
posted by Anna on December 11th, 2003 at 4:04 pmNow lets go do some crimes!
posted by Steven B. Cherry on December 11th, 2003 at 4:16 pmDidn’t know where else to post this:
It was really nice meeting some of you at our place. Larry-sorry I didn’t get to speak with you more, you seem like a very interesting fellow.
I was happy to see Boris and JS getting along swimmingly (or at least, I didn’t witness any screaming or other pugnacious behavior), which was nice.
The biggest surprise was finally meeting AAIO, and finding out that he is none other than former Gov. Engler! Who knew that he knew how to type?! I sure didn’t.
And for those who now think that Leopold Bros. is overrated: hey, we’re just happy that we’re rated at all.
And now, back to the comedy…..
posted by todd on December 11th, 2003 at 4:32 pmPersonally I think Boulder sucks ass.
posted by Who, me? on December 11th, 2003 at 6:03 pmSomething to note, Anna: First off, if you care about being raped, 2002 was a worse than usual year for Ann Arbor, according to the Ann Arbor police statistics- it had an increase of 33% over the previous year, and reversed a trend of declining rapes. (http://www.ci.ann-arbor.mi.us/Police/Crime%20Stats.html).
posted by js on December 11th, 2003 at 6:34 pmSecond, the statistics given for the Ann Arbor area on that Area Connect crime page may or may not represent a true picture of crime in Ann Arbor, as it’s unclear where the reporting area that the FBI uses begins and ends. In addition, it’s not clear whether the U-M DPS statistics are included, and whether the crime statistics reported by the Area Connect are purely the raw numbers from the FBI (which are based only on arrests, not on reports of crimes, though the FBI does provide a set of statistics for “cleared” cases as well), which would call into question both sets of data as pictures of the surrounding cities. But if the Ann Arbor statistics do cover U-M, then it’s telling that almost half of the rapes in Ann Arbor happened on campus, and were dealt with through the DPS. (http://www.umich.edu/~safety/CrimeTables.pdf). Then it wouldn’t necessarily be an indictment of Ann Arbor that it has higher rape numbers than Cambridge, it would be an indictment of U-M, for having a disproportionately large contribution to the number of rapes in town.
Furthermore, all comparisons between Cambridge and Ann Arbor, crimewise, are rather specious, as they exist in quite obviously different microcosms. Ann Arbor has no Boston around it. A better comparison would be, say, Madison, or Iowa City, for one city larger and one smaller.
Furthermore, Cambridge has a higher median income than Ann Arbor does, and as such, can expect less crime (generally), and yet seems to only come out ahead in the forcible rape category. While most of the crime can probably be attributed to being part of the Boston metropolitan area, there is certainly no evidence to hold up Cambridge as safer.
(Oh, and another thing that I wanted to address: while Ann Arbor has quite a few “affluent” areas, that’s not the whole picture, as there are quite a few areas with lower socio-economic status around the city that have lower crime rates– both violent and non– than the student ghetto. My neighborhood, I would wager, is a net crime exporter).
posted by js on December 11th, 2003 at 6:37 pmMaybe I’m missing something, but where do you get, “almost half of the rapes in Ann Arbor happened on campus,” when the number for 2002 is 6 [including sodomy] on campus (residential halls are included in “on-campus property”) and the number reported by the A2 police department for 2002 is 27? Even if the UM stats are included in Ann Arbor’s, that would mean that 21 happened off-campus (78%).
Also, where are you getting a 33% increase, when the number from 2001 is 32 (+16%)?
Are we looking at different data? I’m looking at the table entitled, “AAPD 2002 Final Crime Statistics (As Reported to State Police, January 2003)” in your link above.
Puzzledly,
posted by Anna on December 11th, 2003 at 7:10 pmAnna
(Oh, and by “quite affluent,” I meant “people own houses, live orderly lives, pay their bills, etc.,” not, “are rich”. The prosperity of Ann Arbor, even when modest, is in stark contrast to huge neighborhoods in my current city, which are drug- and gang-infested. Guess it’s a matter of perspective. Sorry for the confusion.)
posted by Anna on December 11th, 2003 at 7:15 pmOh, sorry. Looking at the 2003 statistics, which are on the page I linked to. My bad.
posted by js on December 11th, 2003 at 7:37 pmStill, the notes on the collection of the date still stand.
And Anna, you’ve referenced where you’re living many times without stating where it is exacltly (unless I’ve missed some of your posting ouvre). Where are ya?
*data
posted by js on December 11th, 2003 at 7:38 pmIt’s been too long at work. I’m going home now.
js
The thing about these crime statistics (other than it being ridiculous to compare Cambridge to A2) is that they don’t tell you, say, whether someone walking down State Street at 1 a.m. is more likely to be attacked than someone walking around Central Square at 1 a.m.
I’m really surprised Madison is so bad, actually.
posted by ann arbor is overrated on December 11th, 2003 at 7:48 pmOh, and I found my cell phone.
posted by ann arbor is overrated on December 11th, 2003 at 8:22 pmwait a minute. AAIO is a former governor?
posted by __earth on December 11th, 2003 at 9:32 pmLOL! if you are going for the gov. post again, and if I could vote, I’ll vote you!
wait, is that a joke?
posted by __earth on December 11th, 2003 at 10:46 pmBlips notwithstanding, JS brings up some good points on stats being blind to neighborhood and / or demographic distinctions. More densely-popluated or ethnically-VARIED cities also show differences in who is commiting crimes against whom.
This is often how Ypsi is marked as a crime-ridden town - where your average white boy is percieved to get mugged 2x as often as if he were to live in any part of AA. Misconceptions like that (thankfully) keep yuppies (who can’t do math) out of our berg.
People who live in Ypsi (I like to call us Ypsipanties) know exactly where most local crime is concentrated. And we know it does affect us indirectly, rarely directly.
Ann Arbor does not have the same luxury.
Anecdotally, we lived in Ann Arbor for one year: We witnessed two armed robberies near Main Street and had things stolen from our car in our “nice” AA neighborhood. We’ve lived in Ypsi for the last 5 years and have had a lawn chair stolen from our front yard. Bastards,… my dad knitted that chair!
posted by Leighton on December 11th, 2003 at 10:48 pmI just found out you can email reports of crime to the cops…police@twp.ypsilanti.mi.us…scary.
posted by Leighton on December 11th, 2003 at 10:59 pmAAIO - What do you mean you lost your cell phone?
posted by you know who on December 11th, 2003 at 11:36 pmAt the meetup last night.
posted by ann arbor is overrated on December 11th, 2003 at 11:50 pmOK, OK, wow, digesting information;
So on a sidebar what cities can we all agree on that are good to compair to ann arbor, we have to try to deal with the strangness that is detroit, decent economic area with no concentration. Cities we can compare A2 to
Iowa City
Madison
Lansing
Bloomington
Who knows some east coast cities and west coast places to throw in the mix
Eugene
The city that Rutgers is in(just a guess)
OK, also, we know that this town is invaded with too many grad students when we’re talk about how much ann arbor does or doesn’t suck based on stats!!!
PS- no offense to anyone from my comments yesterday, I feel ann arbor is safe, cant help but feel that way, always have.
posted by Just a Voice on December 12th, 2003 at 12:07 amI would take Eugene off the list and put Princeton and New Haven on it. Eugene is more isolated (pretty far even from Portland, which isn’t a big place), as well as a lot livelier and much much more affordable than AA. P-ton and NH are a lot like AA.
posted by Nick on December 12th, 2003 at 12:17 amThough Todd is correct to point out that AAIO strikingly resembles our former governor, I think that is a coincidence. Engler is an MSU guy, after all.
I have never been in the closet about my politician tendencies. I’m pretty sure I was the only openly-politician person who was at the AAIO table at Leopold Brothers that night. My “pol-dar” would have alerted me if a former governor had put in an appearance.
We politicians are often misunderstood and stereotyped by mainstream society. A bigot might react with anger and hostility to a come-on from a politician, like “will you vote for me?” or the more subtle “I’d appreciate your support.”
Politophobes suspect that politicians are recruiting impressionable people, luring them into the privacy of a voting booth to commit shockingly political acts.
I happen to believe that there is no shame in being a politician. Where there are people, there are politicians. Politics is as inescapable a part of the human condition as childbirth or sewage.
I’d appreciate your support.
posted by Larry Kestenbaum on December 12th, 2003 at 12:31 amlarry, based on that post alone, you are now my second favorite polotician, after Bernie Saunders of vermont, heard him speak on C-Span once, it was like a moment of truth when he spoke, and total Bull$#i7 when everyone else spoke.
posted by just a voice on December 12th, 2003 at 1:43 amEugene is livelier than AA? Jesus…I feel sorry for AA, in that case.
posted by alexandra on December 12th, 2003 at 3:20 amI’m going to disagree with Nick. Princeton stays off the list of comparable-to-Ann-Arbor cities. Maybe if Grosse Pointe had a college, we could compare? Either that, or we’re grouping Princeton and New Brunswick (”the city that Rutgers is in”, 12 minutes up the train line from Princeton) together and comparing the agglomerate to A2+Ypsi. The comparison: Princeton = OFW, New Brunswick = the rest of A2 and Ypsi.
I work at the Rutgers planning/policy school, which is located in the “bad” part of New Brunswick (=Ypsi?). I’d live there. I wouldn’t live in Princeton.
Missoula should be on the list (U of Montana), though it kind of lacks a large metropolitan area nearby. Huntington, WV? (Marshall University) Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario? (U of Waterloo) Kalamazoo?
posted by Murph on December 12th, 2003 at 3:35 amAt the risk of being too self-revelatory, New Haven needs to be OFF that list. If UM-A2 moved to Flint, then it might be a fair comparison.
posted by Anna on December 12th, 2003 at 9:26 amAa I mentioned in comments to the next item, I will develop and post a list (this weekend) of comparable cities based on statistical criteria. Y’all are invited to do the same.
posted by Larry Kestenbaum on December 12th, 2003 at 9:44 amJS, regarding your question, see above.
posted by Anna on December 12th, 2003 at 9:55 amLarry —
Inquiring junior faculty and grad students want to know: any chance of getting a publication out of it?
posted by Anna on December 12th, 2003 at 10:02 amLeighton & JS, I agree with both of you — A2 does not compare well because it is not really “urban” in the sense that Cambridge is. That makes it even worse that there is as much crime as there is in A2.
JS, one last thing: income averages are bad stats, because income is not normally distributed (i.e. not bell-shaped). The right summary statistic for income is the median. I would guess (though am too busy to actually dig up the data) that Cambridge’s median is close to Ann Arbor’s, when adjusted for the cost of living, because Cambridge has a number of very, very wealthy folk who probably inflate the average (Harvard pays its superstars incredibly well, whereas Michigan does not compensate the superstars in the same way; just trust me on this, even if you think UM senior faculty make a lot of money. For example, someone I know was given a *house* — worth about $1M, if not more — practically on campus, when Harvard was wooing her from here. Cambridge also attracts professionals, etc. who probably bring up the averages. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cambridge’s median was even slightly lower than A2’s because there is a very sizable working class and a lot of recent immigrants.
posted by Anna on December 12th, 2003 at 10:55 amActually, Anna, in looking up the stats, I used the median income. Which is roughly $5,000 greater in Cambridge. (Approx $44,000 to approx. $49,000).
posted by js on December 12th, 2003 at 11:14 amI just did a websearch for “median income Cambridge” (and replaced the town with Ann Arbor for the second one) to find census figures, but I’m too lazy to do that again.
Oh, and the Leighton- A lot of Ypsi’s crime statistics come from the East side, with good reason. I was a census worker out there (near Ford and Ecorse), and was really surprised at the level of endemic poverty. I mean, I had seen it in driving to Value World before, but it was a weird place. I had one drunk guy scream at me to get off his lawn, then take swings at me while stumbling around, only to hop into his van and peel out. As required, I put him down for a follow up visit.
posted by js on December 12th, 2003 at 11:17 am(Being a census worker was my best job ever).
Okay, JS, good, glad you used medians (you said, “average” in your post). So, adjusted for the cost of living, the median income in Cambridge is lower. To have the same standard of living in Cambridge, you have to make 140% of what you need to make in A2 (roughly, of course, http://www.homefair.com/).
posted by Anna on December 12th, 2003 at 11:33 am(No, I said median.)
posted by js on December 12th, 2003 at 12:38 pmAnd yeah, my girlfriend used to live in Cambridge a couple blocks from Harvard square, and I was amazed that a) there was no where to eat for under $5, something that I’ve never had happen in any metropolitan area before, and that b) PBR was listed as an import on most of the taps, and they wanted $8 for a pint of it at one bar.
But for doing commiserate clerical work, my girlfriend made roughly double there what she does here, so I guess it evens out somewhat.
(No, I said median.)
posted by js on December 12th, 2003 at 12:45 pmAnd yeah, my girlfriend used to live in Cambridge a couple blocks from Harvard square, and I was amazed that a) there was no where to eat for under $5, something that I’ve never had happen in any metropolitan area before, and that b) PBR was listed as an import on most of the taps, and they wanted $8 for a pint of it at one bar.
But for doing commiserate clerical work, my girlfriend made roughly double there what she does here, so I guess it evens out somewhat.
Harvard Square is the A2 of Cambridge. East Cambridge is where it’s at.
posted by ann arbor is overrated on December 12th, 2003 at 5:09 pmIn my fair city, whenever a new business opens up around campus, a small contingent of undergrads say, “Oh God, it’s turning into Harvard Square!”. First of all, as if they don’t still wish they were at Harvard. Second, no danger of that.
posted by Anna on December 12th, 2003 at 5:47 pmI did get one of the best haircuts of my life at a weird Portuguese barber shop in East Cambridge that was recommended for their straight-razor shaves. For some reason, people who don’t speak English have given me the best haircuts…
posted by js on December 12th, 2003 at 5:56 pmjs
That was probably right by my house. I lived over by Cambridge and Berkshire in the Portuguese neighborhood, down the street from the “Live Poultry Fresh Killed” sign and the bridal shop with dismembered mannequins in the window.
posted by ann arbor is overrated on December 12th, 2003 at 6:07 pmWhen I lived in an apartment complex in Ann Arbor during my first year in grad school, my neighbors had poultry hanging in their window on occasion. And had four people living in a one bedroom apartment. The matriarch seemed like a sweet lady. She folded my laundry without me knowing about it. Kinda freaky but at the same time sweet.
posted by Jon on December 13th, 2003 at 3:19 amWow, Anna, some new locale. AA, Pittsburgh, and now the latest? Are you in some kind of Peace Corps program for decaying towns?
posted by Nick on December 13th, 2003 at 8:33 pmHey, I live to serve!
(Pittsburgh was quite nice, but my standards are, at this point, admittedly low)
posted by Anna on December 14th, 2003 at 1:59 pmAAIO- According to my girlfriend, it was in Central Square (so maybe not E. Cambridge), next door to “the crazy Asian supermarket.”
posted by js on December 14th, 2003 at 11:25 pmjs
Genius hath electric power which earth can never tame.
posted by Hauschka Alice on February 27th, 2004 at 1:35 pm